Monthly Market Overview July 2025
LAST MONTH’S ECONOMIC EVENTS
• U.S. Employment Increased by 139,000 Jobs
• U.S. Unemployment Rate Unchanged at 4.2%
• Canadian Employment Increased by 7,400 Jobs
• Canada’s Unemployment Rate Increased to 7.0%
• U.S. Annual Inflation Rate Increased to 2.4%
• Canada’s Annual Inflation Rate Unchanged at 1.7%
• U.S. Monthly Retail Sales Decreased by -0.9%
• Canada’s Monthly Retail Sales Decreased by -1.1%
• U.S. First Quarter GDP Growth Rate (Final Estimate) Decreased by -0.5%
• United States’ Federal Funds Rate Unchanged at 4.5%
• Canada’s Overnight Interest Rate Unchanged at 2.75%
THIS MONTH’S UPCOMING ECONOMIC EVENTS
• July 3: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics Employment Change (8:30)
• July 3: U.S. Bureau of Labour Unemployment Rate (8:30)
• July 11: Statistics Canada Employment Change (8:30)
• July 11: Statistics Canada Unemployment Rate (8:30)
• July 15: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics Inflation Rate (8:30)
• July 15: Statistics Canada Inflation Rate (8:30)
• July 17: U.S. Census Bureau Retail Sales (8:30)
• July 24: Statistics Canada Retail Sales (8:30)
• July 30: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis First Quarter GDP Growth Final Estimate (8:30)
• July 30 U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (14:00)
• July 30: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision (9:45)
1 (Source: Bank of Canada)
2(Source: Statistics Canada)
3(Source: United States Bureau of Labour Statistics)
4(Source: United States Federal Reserve)
5(Source: United Census Bureau)
| Market Activity for June 2025 | ||||
| Monthly Change | 2025 Change | 12 Month Change | Ending Value | |
| GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS | ||||
| S&P/TSX Composite (Canada) | 2.61% | 8.61% | 22.77% | 26857.11 |
| Dow Jones Industrial Avg. (U.S) | 4.32% | 3.64% | 12.72% | 44094.77 |
| S&P 500 (U.S.) | 4.96% | 5.5% | 13.63% | 6204.95 |
| Nasdaq Composite (U.S.) | 6.57% | 5.48% | 14.87% | 20369.73 |
| FTSE 100 (U.K) | -0.13% | 7.19% | 7.31% | 8760.96 |
| Dax (Germany) | -0.37% | 20.09% | 31.12% | 23909.61 |
| CAC 40 (France) | -1.11% | 3.86% | 2.49% | 7665.91 |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 6.64% | 1.49% | 2.28% | 40487.39 |
| Nifty 50 (India) | 3.1% | 7.92% | 6.27% | 25517.05 |
| Shanghai Composite (China) | 2.9% | 2.76% | 16.08% | 3444.43 |
| Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) | 3.36% | 20.0% | 35.86% | 24072.28 |
| BOND YIELDS & MORTGAGE RATE (UNITED STATES) | ||||
| 1 Year Treasury Bill Yield – U.S. | -3.41% | -4.54% | -22.34% | 3.959% |
| 2 Year Treasury Bill Yield – U.S. | -4.63% | -12.44% | -21.3% | 3.715% |
| 5 Year Treasury Bill Yield – U.S. | -3.82% | -13.19% | -12.42% | 3.804% |
| 10 Year Treasury Bill Yield – U.S. | -3.82% | -7.6% | -3.34% | 4.225% |
| 30 Year Mortgage Rate (Average) – U.S. | -2.17% | -6.59% | -6.33% | 6.80% |
| BOND YIELDS & PRIME RATE (CANADA) | ||||
| 1 Year Bond Yield – Canada | 0.73% | -14.3% | -41.15% | 2.619% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield – Canada | 0.23% | -11.78% | -35.31% | 2.59% |
| 5 Year Bond Yield – Canada | 0.61% | -4.74% | -19.76% | 2.823% |
| 10 Year Bond Yield – Canada | 1.38% | 0.55% | -7.43% | 3.244% |
| Prime Rate – Canada | 0.0% | -9.17% | -28.78% | 4.95% |
| CURRENCY RATES | ||||
| Canada/US Dollar | 1.0% | 5.71% | 0.57% | $0.735 |
| Euro/US Dollar | 3.82% | 13.77% | 10.02% | $1.178 |
| US Dollar/Indian Rupee | 0.14% | 0.15% | 2.81% | ₹ 85.704 |
| US Dollar Japanese Yen | -0.02% | -8.39% | -10.46% | ¥144.027 |
| US Dollar/Chinese Yuan | -0.5% | -1.83% | -1.42% | ¥7.164 |
| Bitcoin/USD | 3.18% | 15.08% | 78.02% | $107,399.00 |
| FOODS/GRAINS | ||||
| Coffee ($USD/lbs.) | -13.01% | -6.83% | 31.35% | $2.979 |
| Cocoa ($USD/Metric Ton) | -8.31% | -23.11% | 16.12% | $8,977.000 |
| Orange Juice ($USD/lbs.) | -20.73% | -53.93% | -45.32% | $2.260 |
| Sugar ($USD/lbs.) | -5.04% | -15.94% | -20.25% | $0.162 |
| Wheat (USD/Bushel) | 0.66% | -2.54% | -6.28% | $5.375 |
| Corn ($USD/Bushel) | -7.88% | -10.8% | -2.79% | $4.090 |
| Oats ($USD/Bushel) | -2.77% | 11.42% | 13.92% | $3.683 |
| Milk ($USD/lbs.) | -4.78% | -12.7% | -8.84% | $0.177 |
| MATERIALS | ||||
| Lumber ($USD/1000 Board feet) | 5.83% | 13.81% | 39.07% | $626.500 |
| Cotton ($USD/lbs.) | 4.58% | -0.53% | -6.4% | $0.680 |
| ENERGY | ||||
| Crude Oil (WTI – $USD/Barrel) | 6.88% | -9.41% | -20.32% | $64.970 |
| Natural Gas ($USD/MM British Thermal Units) | 1.16% | 12.56% | 34.22% | $3.487 |
| METALS | ||||
| Gold ($USD/Troy Ounce) | -0.01% | 25.52% | 41.69% | $3,315.000 |
| Silver ($USD/Troy Ounce) | 9.98% | 24.22% | 22.89% | $36.325 |
| Copper ($USD/lbs.) | 9.24% | 26.9% | 16.35% | $5.110 |
| Aluminum ($USD/Metric Ton) | 9.2% | 0.71% | 2.85% | $2,564.500 |
| Steel ($USD/Metric Ton) | 0.91% | -9.34% | -15.47% | $2,990.000 |
| REAL ESTATE | ||||
| Greater Toronto Real Estate (Composite) | 0.30% | 0.70% | -4.5% | $1,012,800 |
| COLLECTIBLES | ||||
| Fine Wine 1000 Index | -1.00% | -4.80% | -10.2% | 348.80 |
| 1 Canadian Real Estate Association GTA Composite Prices ending May 31, 2025. 2 Live-ex Fine Wine 1000 Index ending May 31, 2025. * Data provided by FactSet unless otherwise stated as of June 30, 2025, 4:30 PM EST. * This information has been prepared by Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP®, who is a Wealth Advisor for Rubie Wealth Management Group at iA Private Wealth. *Opinions expressed in this article are those of Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP® only and do not necessarily reflect those of iA Private Wealth Inc. *IA Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. iA Private Wealth is a trademark and business name under which iA Private Wealth Inc. operates.  Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP® Wealth Advisor Rubie Wealth Management Group | iA Private Wealth Insurance Advisor | iA Private Wealth Insurance* 26 Wellington Street East, 2nd Floor, Toronto, ON M5E 1S2 T: 647-429-3281 ext. 240018 Desmond.Rubie@iaprivatewealth.ca Schedule a Meeting rubiewealth.com Fellow of CSI (FCSI®) iA Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. iA Private Wealth is a trademark and business name under which iA Private Wealth Inc. operates. *Insurance products are provided through iA Private Wealth Insurance, which is a trade name of PPI Management Inc. Only products and services offered through iA Private Wealth Inc. are covered by the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. |
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