| Monthly Market Analysis November 2025 |
| Economy Global Annual GDP Growth Rates after Trump’s Tariffs Declining Economies (among the six economies in our tracking) Change in Economic Growth after Trump’s Tariffs United States-0.4% Canada-1.1% China-0.6%Japan-0.2% Global Economic Growth (Annual GDP Growth Rate) – 1 Year Chart (*Dotted line shows the start of Trump’s Tariffs, February 4th) The U.S. economy’s (blue) annual growth rate declined from 2.5% to 2.1%. The Canadian economy’s (red) annual growth rate declined from 2.3% to 1.2%. China’s annual economic growth rate (brown) fell from 5.4% to 4.8%. The Eurozone’s annual economic growth rate (green) increased from 1.2% to 1.4%. The Japanese annual economic growth rate (yellow) declined from 1.30% to 1.10%. India’s annual economic growth rate (purple) increased from 6.4% to 7.8%.  Global Annual Inflation Rates after Trump’s Tariffs Rising Inflation (among the six economies in our tracking) Economies with Rising Inflation after Trump’s Tariffs Canada+0.3% Global Inflation Rates (Annualized) – 1 Year Chart (*Dotted line shows the start of Trump’s Tariffs, February 4th) Since Trump’s Tariffs were implemented the inflation rate for all the tracked economies have moved lower except Canada and the United States. Canada’s inflation rate (red) has increased from 1.9% to 2.2%. The United States’ inflation rate (blue) is unchanged at 3.0%. The Eurozone inflation rate (green) fell from 2.5% to 2.1%. China’s inflation rate (brown) declined from 0.5% to 0.2%. Japan’s inflation rate (yellow) fell from 4.0% to 3.0%, and India’s inflation rate (purple) fell from 4.26% to 0.25%.  United States Please note: Due to the United States Government shutdown which started October 1, 2025 and ended on November 12, 2025, government agencies that prepare official United States’ economic data are still in the process of updating their latest reports, as a result, most of October’s data is either delayed or will not be generated. The most recent jobs data released for the month of September, provided further evidence of the slowing pace of job growth in 2025. The U.S. generated 119,000 jobs in September, rebounding from a decline of -4,000 jobs in August. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August. The rate of Inflation is moving further away from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The latest U.S. inflation data for the month of September, showed that the inflation rate moved up to 3.0%, from 2.9% in August. The next inflation update for the month of November will not be reported until December 18th. Coincidentally, the release date for November’s, widely read job report will be delayed from December 5th, until December 16th. The release dates of both the U.S. jobs and inflation reports will mean that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not have up-to-date information for these critical data points, before deciding whether a third consecutive rate cut is warranted in their next interest rate decision meeting on December 10th. Delayed data on consumer spending habits for the month of September was released today (November 25th). Consumers continue to spend, although at a slower pace, as retail sales grew by 0.2% compared to 0.6% in August. Canada The Canadian economy had another phenomenal month of job growth in the month of October. After generating 60,400 additional jobs in September, Canada generated 66,600 additional jobs in October. A large majority of the new jobs in Canada were part-time, in wholesale and retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information culture and recreation, as well as the utilities sector. Another positive development for the Canadian labour market was that the unemployment rate fell in October, from 7.1% to 6.9%. After cutting back on spending in September, Canadian consumers kept their wallets and purses shut in October, as retail sales growth was flat (0%) for the month. The Canadian inflation rate shifted closer to the Bank of Canada’s target rate (2%), as it fell from 2.4% to 2.2% in October. During, their last interest rate decision meeting on October 29th, the Bank of Canada had some concerns about the level of inflation remaining elevated, but they were more concerned about the impact of tariffs on the economy, so they decided to cut rates. The Bank of Canada will meet again on December 10th. Tariffs Tariff Reductions On November 10th, the United States reduced Chinese tariffs by 10% as part of the ongoing trade negotiations between the two countries. The Trump administration announced tariff exemptions (beginning November 13th) on a range of agriculture products from Ecuador, Argentina, El Salvador, and Guatemala. The exempted goods include coffee, tea, tropical fruits and juices, cocoa, spices, bananas, oranges, tomatoes, beef, and some fertilizers. On November 14th the U.S. announced a trade deal with Switzerland and Liechtenstein that lowers the “reciprocal tariff rate” for these two countries from 39% to 15%. Markets Global Stock Markets During the month of October, the U.S. Market (S&P 500) was up 2.27%, while the Canadian market (S&P/TSX Composite Index) grew by 0.79%. The U.S. Nasdaq Composite index which contains a high weighting of technology related stocks had another strong month and increased by 4.70%. The German stock market (Dax 40 index) was up by a mere 0.32%. The Chinese market (Shanghai Composite Index) was up 1.65% and the Indian market (Nifty 50 Index) was up a robust 4.51%. Change in Global Stock Markets the Month of October 2025  Source: FactSet® So far in November, market volatility has increased as investors express concerns about an AI bubble. Investors are also undecided about the likelihood of continued U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. In November, we received positive earnings reports from many of the most valuable U.S. listed stocks, such as Nvdia, Google, Apple, and Walmart to name a few, but some investors are still concerned that market valuations are too high. The volatility in the market, will likely continue between investors who expect AI spending to slow and those who think that AI is in its very early stages. Now that the U.S. Government shutdown is over and we can expect regular releases of economic data from the United States again, consumer inflation should once again be carefully monitored. If inflation continues to move higher in the United States, not only will the U.S. Federal Reserve have to stop cutting interest rates, they may need to consider raising them. Just the thought of interest rates going up again would leave many market participants in fear. Let’s keep our eyes open to the many possible outcomes for the rate of inflation, because the path of inflation is still rather unpredictable in this fast moving global economy. |
| 1 (Source: Bank of Canada) 2(Source: Statistics Canada) 3(Source: United States Bureau of Labour Statistics) 4(Source: United States Federal Reserve) 5(Source: United States Census Bureau) 6(Source: FactSet as of September 30,2025, 5:00 PM) * This information has been prepared by Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP®, who is a Wealth Advisor for Rubie Wealth Management Group at iA Private Wealth. Opinions expressed in this article are those of Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP® only and do not necessarily reflect those of iA Private Wealth Inc. * IA Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. iA Private Wealth is a trademark and business name under which iA Private Wealth Inc. operates.  Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP® Wealth Advisor Rubie Wealth Management Group | iA Private Wealth Insurance Advisor | iA Private Wealth Insurance* 26 Wellington Street East, 2nd Floor, Toronto, ON M5E 1S2 T: 647-429-3281 ext. 240018 Desmond.Rubie@iaprivatewealth.ca Schedule a Meeting rubiewealth.com Fellow of CSI (FCSI®) iA Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. iA Private Wealth is a trademark and business name under which iA Private Wealth Inc. operates. *Insurance products are provided through iA Private Wealth Insurance, which is a trade name of PPI Management Inc. Only products and services offered through iA Private Wealth Inc. are covered by the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. |
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