MONTHLY MARKET OVERVIEW OCTOBER 2025
LAST MONTH’S ECONOMIC EVENTS
- U.S. Employment Increased by 22,000 Jobs
- U.S. Unemployment Rate Increased to 4.3%
- Canadian Employment Decreased by -65,500 Jobs
- Canada’s Unemployment Rate Increased to 7.1%
- U.S. Annual Inflation Rate Increased to 2.9%
- Canada’s Annual Inflation Rate Increased to 1.9%
- U.S. Monthly Retail Sales Increased by 0.6%
- Canada’s Monthly Retail Sales Increased by 1.0%
- U.S. Second Quarter GDP Growth Rate (Final Estimate) Increased by 3.8%
- U.S. Increased Federal Funds rate by 0.25%
- Canada increased Overnight Interest rate by 0.25%
THIS MONTH’S UPCOMING ECONOMIC EVENTS
- October 3: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics Employment Change (8:30)
- October 3: U.S. Bureau of Labour Unemployment Rate (8:30)
- October 10: Statistics Canada Employment Change (8:30)
- October 10: Statistics Canada Unemployment Rate (8:30)
- October 15: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics Inflation Rate (8:30)
- October 16: U.S. Census Bureau Retail Sales (8:30)
- October 21: Statistics Canada Inflation Rate (8:30)
- October 23: Statistics Canada Retail Sales (8:30)
- October 29: U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (14:00)
- October 29: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision (09:45)
- October 30: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Third Quarter GDP Growth Initial Estimate (8:30)
1 (Source: Bank of Canada)
2(Source: Statistics Canada)
3(Source: United States Bureau of Labour Statistics)
4(Source: United States Federal Reserve)
5(Source: United Census Bureau)
| Last Month’s Market Activity (for September 2025) | ||||
| Monthly Change | 2025 Change | 12 Month Change | Ending Value | |
| GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS | ||||
| S&P/TSX Composite (Canada) | 5.11% | 21.41% | 25.09% | 30022.81 |
| Dow Jones Industrial Avg. (U.S) | 1.87% | 9.06% | 9.61% | 46397.89 |
| S&P 500 (U.S.) | 3.53% | 13.72% | 16.07% | 6688.46 |
| Nasdaq Composite (U.S.) | 5.61% | 17.34% | 24.58% | 22660.01 |
| FTSE 100 (U.K) | 1.78% | 14.41% | 13.52% | 9350.43 |
| Dax (Germany) | -0.09% | 19.95% | 23.57% | 23880.72 |
| CAC 40 (France) | 2.49% | 6.98% | 3.41% | 7895.94 |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 5.18% | 12.63% | 18.49% | 44932.63 |
| Nifty 50 (India) | 0.75% | 4.09% | -4.65% | 24611.10 |
| Shanghai Composite (China) | 0.64% | 15.84% | 16.37% | 3882.78 |
| Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) | 7.09% | 33.88% | 27.07% | 26855.56 |
| BOND YIELDS & MORTGAGE RATE (UNITED STATES) | ||||
| 1 Year Treasury Bill Yield – U.S. | -5.7% | -12.73% | -9.6% | 3.62% |
| 2 Year Treasury Bill Yield – U.S. | -0.04% | -14.83% | -0.76% | 3.613% |
| 5 Year Treasury Bill Yield – U.S. | 1.44% | -14.56% | 5.02% | 3.744% |
| 10 Year Treasury Bill Yield – U.S. | -1.65% | -9.14% | 9.73% | 4.154% |
| 30 Year Mortgage Rate (Average) – U.S. | -4.02% | -12.74% | -4.9% | 6.352% |
| BOND YIELDS & PRIME RATE (CANADA) | ||||
| 1 Year Bond Yield – Canada | -8.67% | -20.42% | -26.48% | 2.432% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield – Canada | -6.0% | -15.63% | -14.85% | 2.477% |
| 5 Year Bond Yield – Canada | -6.58% | -9.18% | -0.86% | 2.692% |
| 10 Year Bond Yield – Canada | -6.13% | -2.76% | 6.32% | 3.137% |
| Prime Rate – Canada | -5.05% | -13.76% | -27.13% | 4.70% |
| CURRENCY RATES | ||||
| Canada/US Dollar | -1.3% | 3.31% | -2.87% | $0.718 |
| Euro/US Dollar | 0.42% | 13.33% | 5.38% | $1.174 |
| US Dollar/Indian Rupee | 0.77% | 3.81% | 5.99% | ₹ 88.836 |
| US Dollar Japanese Yen | 0.61% | -5.9% | 2.99% | ¥147.936 |
| US Dollar/Chinese Yuan | -0.16% | -2.44% | 1.45% | ¥7.120 |
| Bitcoin/USD | 5.54% | 22.73% | 81.24% | $114,538.00 |
| FOODS/GRAINS | ||||
| Coffee ($USD/lbs.) | -3.08% | 17.03% | 38.46% | $3.742 |
| Cocoa ($USD/Metric Ton) | -13.01% | -42.55% | -13.14% | $6,707.000 |
| Orange Juice ($USD/lbs.) | 0.27% | -50.01% | -46.82% | $2.452 |
| Sugar ($USD/lbs.) | 1.41% | -13.81% | -26.12% | $0.166 |
| Wheat (USD/Bushel) | -5.01% | -7.98% | -13.1% | $5.075 |
| Corn ($USD/Bushel) | -1.01% | -9.27% | -2.06% | $4.160 |
| Oats ($USD/Bushel) | -8.84% | -7.19% | -21.85% | $3.068 |
| Milk ($USD/lbs.) | -3.42% | -15.16% | -26.08% | $0.172 |
| MATERIALS | ||||
| Lumber ($USD/1000 Board feet) | 11.85% | 11.44% | 17.75% | $613.500 |
| Cotton ($USD/lbs.) | -1.23% | -3.92% | -10.72% | $0.657 |
| ENERGY | ||||
| Crude Oil (WTI – $USD/Barrel) | -2.42% | -12.91% | -8.38% | $62.460 |
| Natural Gas ($USD/MM British Thermal Units) | 11.24% | 7.62% | 14.06% | $3.334 |
| METALS | ||||
| Gold ($USD/Troy Ounce) | 10.52% | 47.14% | 46.12% | $3,885.900 |
| Silver ($USD/Troy Ounce) | 14.97% | 60.11% | 48.83% | $46.820 |
| Copper ($USD/lbs.) | 6.2% | 21.07% | 7.07% | $4.875 |
| Aluminum ($USD/Metric Ton) | 4.52% | 3.22% | 2.69% | $2,628.500 |
| Steel ($USD/Metric Ton) | -2.93% | -8.55% | -9.35% | $3,016.000 |
| REAL ESTATE | ||||
| Greater Toronto – Real Estate (Composite)1 | -1.1% | -3.72% | -5.2% | $969,700.000 |
| Canada – Real Estate (Composite)1 | -0.9% | -1.63% | -3.4% | $686,800.000 |
| COLLECTIBLES | ||||
| Fine Wine 1000 Index2 | -0.3% | -5.7% | -8.6% | 345.3 |
| 1 Canadian Real Estate Association Composite Prices ending August 31, 2025. 2 Live-ex Fine Wine 1000 Index ending August 31, 2025.* Data provided by FactSet unless otherwise stated as of September 30, 2025, 4:30 PM EST.* This information has been prepared by Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP®, who is a Wealth Advisor for Rubie Wealth Management Group at iA Private Wealth.*Opinions expressed in this article are those of Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP® only and do not necessarily reflect those of iA Private Wealth Inc. *IA Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. iA Private Wealth is a trademark and business name under which iA Private Wealth Inc. operates. Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP®Wealth AdvisorRubie Wealth Management Group | iA Private WealthInsurance Advisor | iA Private Wealth Insurance*26 Wellington Street East, 2nd Floor, Toronto, ON M5E 1S2T: 647-429-3281 ext. 240018 Desmond.Rubie@iaprivatewealth.caSchedule a Meetingrubiewealth.com Fellow of CSI (FCSI®) iA Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. iA Private Wealth is a trademark and business name under which iA Private Wealth Inc. operates. *Insurance products are provided through iA Private Wealth Insurance, which is a trade name of PPI Management Inc. Only products and services offered through iA Private Wealth Inc. are covered by the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. |
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