| Monthly Market Analysis April 2026 |
Economy Tariffs and the War in Iran Since the Trump administration begun aggressively levying new tariffs on most of the world, we tracked the change in inflation and economic growth in six economies, China, Canada, United States, Eurozone, Japan, and India. Although most of the Trump’s tariffs have recently been ruled illegal by the U.S. Supreme Court, many remain and continue to have an impact on the global economy. Higher oil prices due to the Iran war will influence higher global inflation rates and create headwinds for economic growth. We will no longer attempt to isolate the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the global economy as we now have two competing sources of higher inflationary and weaker economic growth. FINAL SUMMARY OF CHANGES IN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INFLATION SINCE THE TRUMP TARIFFS STARTED (February 4, 2025 – February 28, 2026) Higher Inflation: Since Trump’s tariffs were implemented the inflation rate for the tracked economies (China, Canada, United States, Eurozone, Japan, India) have moved lower except China. China’s inflation rate increased from 0.5% to 1.3%. Weaker Economic Growth (Annual GDP Growth Rate): Since Trump’s tariffs were implemented the economic growth rate for the tracked economies (China, Canada, United States, Eurozone, Japan, India) have moved lower except India’s economy. The U.S. economy’s annual growth rate declined from 2.5% to 2.0%. The Canadian annual economic growth rate declined from 2.3% to 0.7%. China’s annual economic growth rate fell from 5.4% to 4.5%. The Eurozone’s annual economic growth rate decreased from 1.3% to 1.2%. The Japanese annual economic growth rate declined from 1.30% to 0.5%. United States The U.S labour market rebounded in March with 178,000 additional jobs, after losing -133,000 jobs in February. During the month of March, the U.S. unemployment rate also improved, falling from 4.4% to 4.3%. The U.S. economy continues to show signs that it is gradually slowing down. In addition to a weakening labour market, the U.S. economic growth rate as measured by GDP (gross domestic product) has also been declining. The final estimate of the U.S. Quarterly GDP Growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2025 fell from the previous estimate of 0.7% to 0.5%. We will receive the first estimate of the Quarterly GDP Growth rate for the first quarter of 2026 on April 30th. Economists are predicting that the Quarterly GDP Growth rate (GDP) in the first quarter of 2026 will improve to 1.5%. American consumers continued to ramp up their spending during the month of March, as retail sales grew by 1.7%. The growth in consumer spending is also reflected in higher prices as the U.S. inflation rate grew from 2.4% to 3.3% in March. The spike in inflation was mostly driven by increases in the price of gasoline by 18.9% and fuel oil by 44.2%, spurred by the war in Iran. The U.S. Federal Reserve is monitoring the spike in the inflation rate but are expected to hold interest rates at 3.75% when they meet on April 29th. Canada Canada’s labour market generated an additional 14,100 jobs in March after losing jobs in the prior two months. The unemployment rate remained at 6.7% for the month of March. Consumers increased their spending activity for a second consecutive month in February as retail sales grew by 0.9%. Higher energy prices triggered by the Iran war helped generate an increase in Canada’s inflation rate from 1.8% to 2.4% in March. The Bank of Canada will need to determine if higher inflation will be long-lasting or temporary when they meet on April 29th to set interest rates. The uncertainty about the longevity of the Iran conflict, suggests that the Bank of Canada is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.25%. Markets Global Stock Markets Change in Global Stock Markets April 1 – 15, 2026  Source: FactSet® The conflict in Iran continues to drive markets in April, similar to its impact in March. Except in April there has been a temporary cease fire agreement between the United States and Iran that rejuvenated enthusiasm among market participants. In the first two weeks of April, the U.S. Market (S&P 500) grew by 6.81%, while the Canadian market (S&P/TSX Composite Index) improved by 3.64%. The U.S. Nasdaq Composite index which contains a high weighting of technology related stocks increased by 9.96%. The German stock market (Dax 40 index) grew by 3.07%. The Chinese market (Shanghai Composite Index) advanced by 1.99% and the Indian market (Nifty 50 Index) improved by 6.84%. Last month we talked about the importance of a temporary truce in the Iran/United States conflict, which was achieved. The next step to deescalate the conflict would be a peace accord between the United States and Iran. A negotiated peace settlement would allow oil to be transported more freely in the Strait of Hormuz, ultimately leading to lower oil prices. Lower oil prices will be greatly appreciated by both consumers and market participants (except for those invested in energy and energy related markets). Equity markets are currently in the middle of earnings season (when most public companies release their latest quarterly results to the public). Reviewing corporate earnings reports will allow investors to refocus their attention on the ability of company management teams to deliver successful results to stockholders. 1 (Source: Bank of Canada) 2(Source: Statistics Canada) 3(Source: United States Bureau of Labour Statistics) 4(Source: United States Federal Reserve) 5(Source: United States Census Bureau) 6(Source: FactSet as of April 15th, 5:00 PM) * This information has been prepared by Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP®, who is a Wealth Advisor for Rubie Wealth Management Group at iA Private Wealth. Opinions expressed in this article are those of Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP® only and do not necessarily reflect those of iA Private Wealth Inc. *IA Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. iA Private Wealth is a trademark and business name under which iA Private Wealth Inc. operates.  Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP® Wealth Advisor Rubie Wealth Management Group | iA Private Wealth Insurance Advisor | iA Private Wealth Insurance* 26 Wellington Street East, 2nd Floor, Toronto, ON M5E 1S2 T: 647-429-3281 ext. 240018 Desmond.Rubie@iaprivatewealth.ca Schedule a Meeting rubiewealth.com Fellow of CSI (FCSI®) iA Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. iA Private Wealth is a trademark and business name under which iA Private Wealth Inc. operates. *Insurance products are provided through iA Private Wealth Insurance, which is a trade name of PPI Management Inc. Only products and services offered through iA Private Wealth Inc. are covered by the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. |
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