Monthly Market Analysis June 2026

Monthly Market Analysis June 2026

GLOBAL ECONOMY

United States

The U.S labour market added 172,000 jobs in May, the third consecutive month of growth. May’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%.

The growth rate of the American economy in the first quarter of 2026 was revised upward from 1.6% to 2.1% in the latest GDP growth rate calculation. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2026 on July 30th.

American consumers increased the pace of their spending in May as retail sales grew by 0.9%, compared to 0.5% in April, led by gasoline purchases. Rising gasoline prices also triggered the U.S. Inflation rate to increase from 3.8% to 4.2% in May.

During the press conference after the June 17th U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh, indicated that the committee was concerned about how far inflation has moved away from their 2% target. Despite the committee’s inflation concerns, they decided to hold the Fed Funds rate at 3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting,

Canada 

Canada’s economic growth as measured by GDP improved marginally in the first quarter of 2026 from -0.2% to 0%. The economy is still digesting U.S. tariff pressures in addition to slowing household consumption activity.

After losing -17,700 jobs in April, the Canadian economy added a massive 87,800 jobs in May,  the largest monthly increase since December 2024. The Canadian unemployment rate fell from 6.9% to 6.6% in May. 

Canadian consumers continued to increase their spending for the fifth consecutive month in May, as retail sales grew by 1%. Higher prices at the gas pump impacted the inflation rate which increased from 2.8% to 3.2% in May.

In their June 10th meeting, the Bank of Canada did not see “evidence” of higher energy prices being passed through to the wider Canadian economy, which persuaded them to keep the overnight interest rate at 2.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting.  

Eurozone 

The Eurozone economy declined by -0.2% in the first quarter of 2026, compared to the +0.2% GDP growth rate achieved in the previous quarter. The decline in the Eurozone economy is mostly attributed to Ireland’s GDP falling by -12.1%.

The number of employed people in the Eurozone grew by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2026, a decline from the 0.2% job growth ​achieved in the fourth quarter of 2025. The unemployment rate was steady at 6.3% from March to April.

Consumer spending in the Eurozone fell by -0.4% in April after growing by 0.8% in March.

The Eurozone inflation rate grew from 3% to 3.2%, driven higher by a 10.8% increase in energy prices in May. In contrast to their North American counterparts, the European Central Bank decided to raise interest rates in their June 11th meeting in hopes of slowing down the rise of inflation. The European Central Bank believes that the higher energy prices created by the Iran conflict will linger in the European economy for an extended period.

China 

China’s economic growth rate was 5.0% in the first quarter of 2026, an improvement on the 4.5% GDP growth rate generated in the last quarter of 2025. The faster growth rate was primarily due to an increase in Chinese exports. 

The unemployment rate in China fell from 5.2% to 5.1% in May.

Consumer spending continues to be a problem in China as retail sales fell -0.38% in May, the third consecutive monthly decline. Tight consumer spending in May also translated into a subdued inflation rate of 1.2%.

The People’s Bank of China has kept its 1-year loan prime rate at 3% for the last thirteen months.


MARKETS 


Global Stock Markets 

Change in Global Stock Markets ​ June 1 – 15, 2026


Source: FactSet® 

In the first two weeks of June, the U.S. market (S&P 500) fell by -0.60%, while the Canadian market (S&P/TSX Composite Index) grew by 1.56%. The U.S. Nasdaq Composite index which contains a high weighting of technology related stocks decreased by -1.49%. The German stock market (Dax 40 index) fell by -0.44%. The Chinese market (Shanghai Composite Index) improved by 0.95% and the Indian market (Nifty 50 Index) grew by 2.02%.

Global markets have been volatile due to market participant’s being concerned about higher inflation rates brought about by the Iran war. Investors have shown excitement followed by disappointment from the U.S. government’s daily pronouncements of peace deals with Iran, which have often unravelled. Higher inflation rates have pushed short-term bond yields higher, as bond investors anticipate that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the coming months. Although the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve have not raised interest rates yet, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, as well as other central banks have recently raised rates.
 

1 (Source: Bank of Canada) 
2(Source: Statistics Canada)
3(Source: United States Bureau of Labour Statistics) 
4(Source: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis) 
5(Source: United States Federal Reserve)​
6(Source: United States Census Bureau) 
7(Source: FactSet as of June15th, 5:00 PM) 




Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP®
Wealth Advisor
Rubie Wealth Management Group | iA Private Wealth
Insurance Advisor | iA Private Wealth Insurance*
26 Wellington Street East, 2nd Floor, Toronto, ON M5E 1S2
Direct: 416-203-2228
Office: 416-203-2226
Desmond.Rubie@iaprivatewealth.ca
Schedule a Meeting
rubiewealth.com
iaprivatewealth.ca


Fellow of CSI (FCSI®)

* This information has been prepared by Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP®, who is a Wealth Advisor for Rubie Wealth Management Group at iA Private Wealth. Opinions expressed in this article are those of Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP® only and do not necessarily reflect those of iA Private Wealth Inc. 
*IA Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. iA Private Wealth is a trademark and business name under which iA Private Wealth Inc. operates.
* Insurance products are provided through iA Private Wealth Insurance, which is a trade name of PPI Management Inc. Only products and services offered through iA Private Wealth Inc. are covered by the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP®

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Latest Posts

Categories

Archives

Website Pages