Monthly Market Analysis July 2026

Monthly Market Analysis July 2026

Global Economy

United States

Job growth in the U.S slowed to 57,000 jobs in June compared to the 172,000 jobs added in May, while the unemployment fell from 4.3% to 4.2%.

The growth trajectory of the American economy had improved in the first quarter of this year but lost its momentum in the second quarter. U.S. quarterly GDP growth fell from 2.1% in the first quarter to 1.5% in the second quarter. A slowdown in the growth of U.S. exports is one of the factors that led to weaker overall economic growth in the second quarter.

Retail spending continues to grow monthly in the United States. American consumers have increased their spending in retail establishments for the past eight months. U.S. retail sales grew by 0.2% in June.

The U.S. inflation rate fell during the month of June from, 4.2% to 3.5%, primarily due to the decline in gasoline prices. During the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate policy meeting which concluded on July 29th, three out of twelve voting members, voted to raise interest rates. Based on majority vote, the Federal Funds Rate remained at 3.75% . Most economists are expecting a rate hike announcement following the next interest rate policy meeting on September 16th.

Canada

Canada’s labour market added 18,200 jobs in June, while the unemployment rate fell from 6.6% to 6.5%. Job growth was led by the accommodation and food services sector, possibly signalling a boost from Canada cohosting the World Cup. 

Consumer spending does not show any signs of slowing down in Canada, as retail spending grew by 0.4% in June – the sixth consecutive month of growth.  

The Canadian inflation rate fell from 3.2% to 2.8% in June, led by lower gasoline and food prices. The temporary truce between Iran and the United States triggered oil prices to fall, leading to lower inflation. Weaker inflationary pressures allowed the Bank of Canada to hold Canada’s Overnight Rate at 2.25% during their interest rate policy meeting on July 15th. Economists do not expect the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates in their next meeting on September 2nd.

Eurozone
 
The Eurozone economy grew by 0.4% in the second quarter of this year, an improvement on the -0.2% contraction produced in the first quarter of 2026. Eurozone economic growth was led by AI infrastructure investments and government spending, 

The Eurozone unemployment rate increased from 6.2% in May to 6.3% in June.

Consumer spending in the Eurozone rebounded in May, as retail sales grew by 0.2%, compared to a decline of -0.4% in April.  

The inflation rate in the Eurozone fell during the month of June from 3.2% to 2.8%, driven by falling gasoline prices. Lower inflation influenced the European Central Bank’s decision to hold rates at 2.4% during their July 23rd rate policy meeting. Economists expect the European Central Bank to maintain the main refinancing operations rate at 2.4% when they meet on September 10th.

China
 
The pace of economic growth in China declined from 5% in the first quarter of this year to 4.3% in the second quarter. Consumer spending is the main culprit behind the weaker economy. On a positive note, consumer spending slightly improved in June, as retail sales grew by 0.38%, 

China’s unemployment rate continues to move on a downward trajectory. The unemployment rate fell from 5.1% in May to 5% in June.                                                      

The People’s Bank of China has kept its 1-year loan prime rate at 3% for the last fourteen months.

  
Markets

 
Global Stock Markets 

 
Change in Global Stock Markets ​ July 1 – 15, 2026
 Source: FactSet® 

In the first two weeks of July, the U.S. market (S&P 500) improved by 1.19%, while the Canadian market (S&P/TSX Composite
Index) grew by 1.29%. The U.S. Nasdaq Composite index which contains a high weighting of technology related stocks increased by 1.69%. The German stock market (Dax 40 index) fell by -2.28%. The Chinese market (Shanghai Composite Index) declined by -1.82% and
the Indian market (Nifty 50 Index) decreased by -0.40%.

Volatile market conditions have remained in place in July, with similar themes as June. The deterioration of the cease fire agreement between Iran and the United States has reignited concerns in financial market that higher oil prices will push inflation higher. Market participants are aware that higher inflation will eventually lead to higher interest rates and possibly a weaker economy. 

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Warsh continues to reiterate the committee’s discomfort with inflation being “persistently elevated” above their 2% target over the last five years. We should expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this Fall. Markets will likely experience some down days over the coming month, as investors worry over rising interest rates, but positive developments in the Iran-U.S. conflict will allow markets to periodically rebound.

1(Source: Bank of Canada) 
2(Source: Statistics Canada)
3(Source: United States Bureau of Labour Statistics) 
4(Source: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis) 
5(Source: United States Federal Reserve)
​6(Source: United States Census Bureau) 
7(Source: FactSet as of July 15th, 5:00 PM)

* This information has been prepared by Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP®, who is a Wealth Advisor for Rubie Wealth Management Group at iA Private Wealth. Opinions expressed in this article are those of Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP® only and do not necessarily reflect those of iA Private Wealth Inc.  *IA Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. iA Private Wealth is a trademark and business name under which iA Private Wealth Inc. operates.* Insurance products are provided through iA Private Wealth Insurance, which is a trade name of PPI Management Inc. Only products and services offered through iA Private Wealth Inc. are covered by the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP® Investment & Wealth Advisor Rubie Wealth Management Group | iA Private Wealth Insurance Advisor | iA Private Wealth Insurance* 26 Wellington Street East, 2nd Floor, Toronto, ON M5E 1S2 Direct: 416-203-2228 Office: 416-203-2226 Desmond.Rubie@iaprivatewealth.ca rubiewealth.com Fellow of CSI (FCSI®)