Monthly Economic & Market Overview October 2026
Last Month’s Economic Events
- U.S. Employment Increased by 162,000 Jobs
- U.S. Unemployment Rate Unchanged at 4.1%
- Canadian Employment Decreased by -41,700 Jobs
- Canada’s Unemployment Rate Unchanged at 6.4%
- U.S. Annual Inflation Rate Unchanged at 3.4%
- Canada’s Annual Inflation Rate Unchanged at 3.0%
- U.S. Monthly Retail Sales Increased by 1.2%
- Canada’s Monthly Retail Sales Increased by 1.3%
- U.S. Second Quarter GDP Growth Final Estimate Decreased to 2.2%
- United States Federal Funds Rate Increased to 4.0%
- Canada’s Overnight Rate Unchanged at 2.25%
This Month’s Upcoming Economics Events
- October 2: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics Non-Farm Payroll (8:30)
- October 2: Bureau of Labour Statistics Unemployment Rate (8:30)
- October 9: Statistics Canada Employment Change (8:30)
- October 9: Statistics Canada Unemployment Rate (8:30)
- October 14: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Inflation Rate (8:30)
- October 19: Statistics Canada Inflation Rate (8:30)
- October 23: Statistics Canada Retail Sales (8:30)
- October 28: U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (14:00)
- October 28: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision (9:45)
- October 29: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Third Quarter GDP Quarterly Growth Rate Final Estimate (8:30)
1 (Source: Bank of Canada)
2(Source: Statistics Canada)
3(Source: United States Bureau of Labour Statistics)
4(Source: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis)
5(Source: United States Federal Reserve)
6(Source: United Census Bureau)
| Last Month’s Market Activity (for September 2026) | ||||
| Monthly Change | 2026 Change | 12 Month Change | Ending Value | |
| Global Stock Markets | ||||
| S&P/TSX Composite (Canada) | -2.85% | 11.11% | 17.36% | 35235.87 |
| Dow Jones Industrial Avg. (U.S) | -4.29% | 5.91% | 9.72% | 50906.05 |
| S&P 500 (U.S.) | -0.45% | 11.77% | 14.4% | 7651.54 |
| Nasdaq Composite (U.S.) | 1.86% | 15.57% | 18.54% | 26861.06 |
| FTSE 100 (U.K) | -2.02% | 6.79% | 13.43% | 10606.00 |
| Dax (Germany) | -4.03% | 2.89% | 5.52% | 25199.19 |
| CAC 40 (France) | -4.44% | -2.27% | 0.87% | 7964.51 |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 0.67% | 32.61% | 48.56% | 66753.72 |
| Nifty 50 (India) | -6.06% | -13.43% | -8.09% | 22620.45 |
| Shanghai Composite (China) | -3.61% | -3.19% | -1.05% | 3842.19 |
| Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) | -3.73% | -3.97% | -8.35% | 24613.27 |
| Bond Yields & Mortgage Rate (United States) | ||||
| 1 Year Treasury Bill Yield – U.S. | 9.84% | 30.75% | 25.41% | 4.54% |
| 2 Year Treasury Bill Yield – U.S. | 12.88% | 40.99% | 35.74% | 4.90% |
| 5 Year Treasury Bill Yield – U.S. | 13.31% | 36.64% | 36.26% | 5.093% |
| 10 Year Treasury Bill Yield – U.S. | 11.39% | 26.83% | 27.48% | 5.287% |
| 30 Year Mortgage Rate (Average) – U.S. | 7.06% | 15.22% | 13.28% | 7.204% |
| Bond Yields & Prime Rate (Canada) | ||||
| 1 Year Bond Yield – Canada | 11.53% | 23.45% | 22.94% | 2.99% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield – Canada | 11.49% | 30.09% | 35.73% | 3.362% |
| 5 Year Bond Yield – Canada | 10.54% | 27.25% | 37.53% | 3.702% |
| 10 Year Bond Yield – Canada | 6.55% | 16.45% | 27.4% | 3.997% |
| Prime Rate – Canada | 0.0% | 0.0% | -5.32% | 4.45% |
| Currency Rates | ||||
| Canada/US Dollar | -2.67% | -3.59% | -2.21% | $0.703 |
| Euro/US Dollar | -2.46% | -3.52% | -3.42% | $1.133 |
| US Dollar/Indian Rupee | 0.83% | 6.74% | 7.99% | ₹ 95.934 |
| US Dollar Japanese Yen | -1.49% | 0.43% | 6.37% | ¥157.353 |
| US Dollar/Chinese Yuan | -0.31% | -4.13% | -5.82% | ¥6.705 |
| Bitcoin/USD | 6.57% | -4.39% | -26.57% | $83,698.92 |
| Foods/Grains | ||||
| Coffee ($USD/lbs.) | -6.93% | -16.87% | -22.66% | $2.899 |
| Cocoa ($USD/Metric Ton) | -21.16% | -11.99% | -20.91% | $5,338.000 |
| Orange Juice ($USD/lbs.) | 10.35% | -24.73% | -37.82% | $1.515 |
| Sugar ($USD/lbs.) | 4.55% | 24.05% | 12.17% | $0.186 |
| Wheat (USD/Bushel) | -12.76% | 33.19% | 32.92% | $6.753 |
| Corn ($USD/Bushel) | -6.79% | 13.86% | 20.64% | $5.013 |
| Oats ($USD/Bushel) | 12.06% | 38.18% | 35.93% | $4.180 |
| Milk ($USD/lbs.) | -8.99% | -2.23% | -13.59% | $0.149 |
| Materials | ||||
| Lumber ($USD/1000 Board feet) | -5.1% | 0.28% | -11.91% | $540.000 |
| Cotton ($USD/lbs.) | -15.61% | 22.3% | 19.51% | $0.786 |
| Energy | ||||
| Crude Oil (WTI – $USD/Barrel) | 5.34% | 57.33% | 44.85% | $90.340 |
| Natural Gas ($USD/MM British Thermal Units) | 2.62% | -3.77% | -8.81% | $3.012 |
| Metals | ||||
| Gold ($USD/Troy Ounce) | -6.52% | -3.5% | 8.16% | $4,189.100 |
| Silver ($USD/Troy Ounce) | -9.31% | -13.95% | 30.26% | $60.755 |
| Copper ($USD/lbs.) | -0.71% | 16.86% | 36.72% | $6.640 |
| Aluminum ($USD/Metric Ton) | -2.29% | 11.0% | 25.83% | $3,299.250 |
| Steel ($USD/Metric Ton) | -3.0% | -2.06% | 1.33% | $3,041.000 |
| Real Estate | ||||
| Greater Toronto – Real Estate (Composite)1 | -0.9% | -1.7% | -4.5% | $925,900.00 |
| Canada – Real Estate (Composite)1 | -0.7% | -0.31% | -3.0% | $657,500.00 |
| Collectibles | ||||
| Fine Wine 100 Index2 | 0.65% | 1.1% | 3.3% | 322.9 |
| ¹Canadian Real Estate Association Composite Prices ending August 31, 2026. ²Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index ending August 31, 2026. *Data provided by FactSet unless otherwise stated as of September 30, 2026, 5:30 PM EST. * This information has been prepared by Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP®, who is a Wealth Advisor for iA Private Wealth Inc. and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of iA Private Wealth. The information contained in this post comes from sources we believe reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or reliability. The opinions expressed are based on an analysis and interpretation dating from the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, they do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned. The information contained herein may not apply to all types of investors. iA Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. iA Private Wealth is a trademark and a business name under which iA Private Wealth Inc. operates. *Insurance products are provided through iA Private Wealth Insurance, which is a trade name of PPI Management Inc. Only products and services offered through iA Private Wealth Inc. are covered by the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. |
| Desmond Rubie, BCom, FCSI®, CIM®, CFP® Wealth Advisor Rubie Wealth Management Group | iA Private Wealth Insurance Advisor | iA Private Wealth Insurance* 26 Wellington Street East, 2nd Floor, Toronto, ON M5E 1S2 Direct: 416-203-2228 Office: 416-203-2226 Desmond.Rubie@iaprivatewealth.ca rubiewealth.com Fellow of CSI (FCSI®) |
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